Megatrends

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For a miracle we must pray, for change we must work. (Thomas Aquinas)


Image: Caricature (follows)


A glimpse out of the classroom window reveals: Aha, something is happening in the ‘real’ world. If we don’t want to lose our grip in school, the first thing to learn is to deal with changes. Compared to other parts of society school doesn’t have a tradition for change. A fevered excitement culture develops in school systems and people reform in a short short-lived and hectic fits of action that make superficial rearrangements. There were always these short lived reforms but nothing has ever really changed.

A new format for school reports, one lesson more or less, core time and similar things start discussions and people run around like alarmed chickens, as if it really mattered. But, these are peanuts, just marginalia. The changes that have to be done are fundamental, and that’s where the rubber meets the road.


Essentially, there are four mega trends (trend = basic trend, direction in which a development is going) to recognize:

  1. Diversity
  2. Relativity
  3. Virtuality
  4. Personality

They challenge the education system on all levels, today and in to the future.


Contents

Diversity

Socialization backgrounds: migration, globalization, patchwork, developmental differences Learning differences: Strategies, background knowledge, experience, learning pace Diversity Management: diversity as an opportunity, resource, History (U.S.), meaning (fortune 500)

Relativity

Amount of information: big letters / loud tones, development of information quantity, hypes, multiple perspectives (numerous sources), e-mail
Availability: time and space, e-mail (handling pressure)
Sources: identification, Internet, verifiability (content, authorship), myths, lack of authority

Virtuality

Virtual Worlds: 3rd Hand Information, attention and perception abilities, control / supervision hampered by Adults (own worlds),
View of the world: alienation, manipulation and distortion of feasibility, aggression, communication, ability to relate to others, unboundedness
Self-reflection: lack of movement, health (weight, stress, diabetes...), psychological impact (ideals)


Personality

Self design ability: Flexibility, strategic thinking, tolerance of uncertainty, connectivity, self-efficacy, self-concept, (against the background of the decrease of importance of knowledge)
Ability to cooperate: work teams, ability to face conflicts, adaptation, tolerance, ability to integrate, loyalty (against the background of more diversity: people are very different,
Virtuality: other types of communication)


Sources, resources, links

Oelkers, J. (ohne Angabe). Wohin bewegen sich die Schulreformen in Europa? Ein Vortrag über die europäischen Unterschiede und Gemeinsamkeiten in der Schulreform.
https://www.uzh.ch/paed/ap/downloads/oelkers/Vortraege/259_Salzburg.pdf

Horx, M.(ohne Angabe). Megatrend Bildung - die neue Lernkultur. Der bekannte Trendforscher über die (nahe) Zukunft des Lernens.
http://www.partner-fuer-schule.nrw.de/download/news/fsf/fsf_zukunftsberuf/plenum_Horx_Matthias_manusk.pdf

Horx, M. (2002). Was wir über die Zukunft wissen können - Trends und Megatrends des 21. Jahrhunderts. Der bekannte Trendforscher über die gesellschaftlichen Veränderungen des 21. Jahrhunderts.
http://www.hvgr.ch/pdf/horx.pdf

Dokumentation zu den allgemeinen gesellschaftlichen Megatrends
http://www.gfk.at/de/download/PRESS%5CMegatrendDukumentation_Inhalt.pdf

Artikel zu Pädagogischer Qualitätsentwicklung zwischen Strukturveränderung und Kulturwandel
http://www.hibb.hamburg.de/index.php/file/download/1730?PHPSESSID=1ff06c8c67fd839dd0d878faee7f3f35

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